Financial Crisis and Interest Rates-Free-Samples for Students

Question: Discuss about the Economic Policy and Global Government. Answer: Introduction: The Federal Reserve of United States declared that it would raise the rate of interest for the first time followed by a months of speculations among the market viewers. This could be regarded as good news for the US because it symbolizes a sign of improving economy however it represents a mixed picture for Singapore (Taussig 2013). The central bank of US increased its standard of federal funds rate, the rate at which banks charges each other for the immediate sum of loan by a quarter of percentage point by citing an improving economy and labour market. Financial Crisis and Interest Rates: The widely anticipated increase was just the second since the international financial crisis of 2008 and it is anticipated to swell through the economy, pushing up the rates on credit cards, mortgages, loans of vehicles and bank savings accounts. It is noteworthy to denote that the lower amount of interest rate makes it cheaper and more appealing for household and business to borrow (Sloman Norris and Garrett 2013). They also encourage banks and other organisations to lend or invest because keeping the money in bank would result in almost no amount of return. It is worth mentioning that euro zone, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and Japan all now have negative amount of interest rate. The rate of interest rate in US was also cut down to small amount of low level following the worldwide financial crisis. However, the Federal bank in the last driver ultimately pulled the trigger and increased the rate of interest for the first time in almost a decade (Bernanke, Antonovics and Frank 2015). The first and foremost hike reflected that the US central bank was sure concerning the strength of the economy and its capability to hold the higher amount of borrowing cost. In the current year the Federal bank had anticipated to make four further increases however a range of obstruction have come out including the disorder in financial markets and the vote of Britain to leave the European Union that erupted the flow of works. Higher borrowing costs: Higher rate of US interest rate represents a higher amount of borrowing cost for households and organizations. These comprises of the rates of mortgages, corporate loans and the savings accounts of bank that will work as boon to savers. Ever since June, it is now 0.96 per cent, which is 10 per cent higher from November 11. Singapore Interbank Offered Rate is typically and highly correlated with the US interest rates (Laibson and List 2015). Both the corporate sector and the households sector will witness an upwards surge in cost. Household sector will be the most likely to be affected mainly due to the mortgage loans, while companies will be requiring more amount of cash to pay back their corporate borrowing. This will ultimately result in increase in the business cost (Goodwin et al. 2015). A faster verification with banks here represented that the rate of fixed deposit and interest rate for fixed mortgages is largely unaffected even though some of the lenders have cited that they a re yet in the process of determining the rate of interest for the next year. The projection of UOB for the upcoming three months is likely to increase by 1.05 per cent by the second quarter of the following year. The timing of the US interest hike last week is not regarded as good for the slowing economy of Singapore in the short term (Laubach and Williams 2016). In particular, the dull business and buyer sentiments higher rate of interest might additionally lower down spending and may create a lacklustre business and consumer sentiments, higher interest rates could further reduce the spending and weigh on the investment plan of the companies. The interest rates matches with the degraded situation of the manual labour market. Capital outflows and weaker currencies: An additional concern for Singapore and other states is the visualization of investment funds flowing out. Higher rate of interest enables the investors to take money out of the emerging markets into the US dollar-denominated assets, imposing force on the Asian currencies and assets markets. Something identical took place in 2013, when the Federal Bank made known that it would cut down its plan of flowing the money in the financial system with the help of aggressive purchase of bond (Eggertsson et al. 2016). Several investors have taken out the money from the Asian economies resulting in what has been understood as the narrow explosion. The Asian currencies have destabilized against the US dollar because of this. The Washington based institute of international finance notes that foreign investors have taken out US $16 billion of portfolio from the rising markets of Asia last month in contrast to the US $20 billion in June 2013, at the time of narrow explosion. The departing investors anticipate the shareholder to slope up the government spending in order to boost inflation in US and raise the rates further (Saunders and Cornett 2014). Asian currencies go down against the dollar in the wake of the Federal bank latest hike in interest rates. The ringgit is considered to be the most effected during the Asian financial crisis. It has since then improved to some extent however; it is predicted to stay weak against the surging green back. Stronger US growth: An increase in the interest rate towards a stronger US economy however economist are separated over whether this considerably make an impact on the economy of the Singapore. The campaign of the president to make US a stronger economy could result in fiscal spending that may additionally add growth in 2017 and 2018 (Barsky, Justiniano and Melosi 2014). It can be understood that stronger US economy will trickle down Singapore in terms of the stronger growth with more amount of export of goods and service especially in the longer run. Several economists have pointed out that the current president policy priorities may serve benefit or growth to the Singapore and other regions. It is understood that the US might not import as much from the rest of the world since its economy is gaining pace. It is doubted that the improvement in US market will yield benefit to Singapore as much as now as in past (Laubach and Williams 2015). In other words, the negative created from the rise in interest r ate would more likely offset the anticipated benefit from the stronger US growth. Lower unsustainable rates: In the coming years it is anticipated that higher interest rate in the US will create a significant implications for Singapore. The federal bank has been under pressure to normalise the rate of interest for a period and market observers have accused the central bank of kicking the can down the road in holding off the increase in rate of interest throughout the current year. This is because it is not clear whether eight years of ultra low interest rate ever since the global financial crisis have assisted in lifting up the economic growth (Gavin 2015). Growth in the European zone meanwhile is considered as almost flat unemployment continuous to remain high. Another reason that has led the economist to call for hike in interest rate is that the ultra low rates have created new risks for investors around the world. A large number of the criticism has emphasised on the dangers of the asset bubbles. A constant subject is that lower rate of interest have been distorting prices by forcing the investors to excessively adopt the risky strategies of investment in search of yield. Ultra amount of low interest rate have increased the level of debts across the world. A majority of the economies have higher level of borrowing relative to size the economies, which was, did in 2007 (Beyer and Wieland 2017). This would not be considered to be an issue given the cost of paying the debt remains to be low. However, when the interest rates goes up and the access to credit turns out to be more difficult, debt paying can chip away the corporate profit and investment along with the weight on the economic growth. Ultimately, constant low interest rates are not considered to be healthy for the global economy and it would be unrealistic as well as unwise to anticipate the rates to remain low in perpetuity (Williams 2015). The Monetary Authority of Singapore has applied the measure to assure that the households are placed in better position to deal with an upward rising in rates together with the moves to curb the imprudent borrowing. Figure 1: Figure illustrating demand and supply of bond quantity (Source: Keynes 2016) Affect of US interest rate on Singapore: The decision of the Federal Bank to increase the interest rate might have resulted the US dollar appreciating to the highest level ever since the year 2003 against the Euro. It is has sent down the Timex of the straight to its largest fall in three weeks which reflects a clear indication that the participants of market are worried about how an increase in interest rate will create an impact on the economy of Singapore (Tily 2016). An increase in the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve will result a ripple effect that may lead to increase in almost everything. This consists of the mortgages and business loans that might translate into the tougher times ahead of the borrowers. Borrowers in the Singapore will have to be better prepared for such kind of hikes and it is very much likely that the financial institutes will price the interest rate hike in. When the rate of interest increases then the price of gold drops and this is because gold is normally held as hedge for the USD and an increase in the interest rate represents that it is less attractive to hold gold. The traders of gold have been caught off guard by the announcement of the Federal Bank. The decision has resulted the gold price plunging to a 10-month low by the end of the US trading session (Kashyap 2014). With an increase in the rate of interest, it is now cheaper for the individuals and organisations from the US to purchase the exports of Singapore. Given the close relationship of trading between the Singapore and the US it is very much likely that business owners in Singapore might experience an increase in demand for their good from the US. Figure 2: Figure illustrating intrinsic interest rate and market interest rate (Source: Malkiel 2015) Following a gap of 10 years the US Federal Reserve have increased the short tern interest rate in December last year. At that time, several market analysis have predicted that 2016 would witness several hike in interest rate which would take the Federal rate beyond 1%. However, a slower economic growth and an inflation rate might remained well below the Federal target of 2% prevented any further increase in interest rate (Malkiel 2015). If the Federal Interest rate moves upward it will have an impact on the Singapore. A movement in the interest rates in the worlds largest economy will create an influence on at least three aspects of the Singapore economy. Price of Property: Ever since the year 2014 the property of Singapore has been in doldrums. After recording a steep rise in the period from the year 2008 to 2013, the values of the real estate have represented a constant decline trend. Such reduction in property rates has created an impact on the residential commercial and industrial property prices. As property is generally bought from the funds obtained from banks the values of the real estate is directly affected by the interest rates (Tanzi 2014). A change in the interest rate have also created an impact on the existing loans for those borrowers that have bought the property that are directly affected by the interest rates. Changes in the rate of interest have also created an impact on the existing loans for those borrowers that have purchased the property with funds carrying variable rate of interest. When the Federal Bank decides to increase the short-term rates both the SIBOR and SOR will move in the identical direction, which will directly create an impact on the Singapore values of real estate. With the rise in the borrowing cost, it will result in the contraction in demand from the individuals that are looking for loan to purchase residential property (Belongia and Ireland 2015). Investors desiring to purchase real estate for the returns will also defer their plans. When the Federal Bank increases its rate of interest, it is very much likely that there will be an indirect effect on the Singapore economy. Singapore Exports: The economy of Singapore is largely dependent on the external trade however, in the recent past it has been noticed that the countrys merchandise exports have been facing tumultuous headwinds. According to the department of Statistics Singapore, the data suggest that the merchandise exports have fell down to S$476 billion in 2015 from the level of S$513 billion a year earlier (Turner 2014). If the Federal Bank decides to raise the rates, it will highlight that the speed of growth in the US economy has picked up speed and there will be a positive sign for both Singapore and the world. With an increased demand from the US, Singapores manufacturing units can be anticipated to witness greater level of activity. However, if the worlds largest economy constantly records a sluggish growth rates then the impact on the Singapore could be negative. The Asian economies might continue to witness subdued amount of exports to the US. Those Asian economies that are highly dependents on exports Sing apore and Hong Kong are the nations that could be most negatively impacted. A Fed rate hike might result to a flight of capital from China: A Federal rate might hurt Singapores largest trading partner China. If the interest rates of US follow an upward trajectory, the US dollar might gain against the other currencies. This might create a pressure on the Chinese yuan. The Chinese central banking authorities would be required to follow either of the two possible options (Summers 2014). They could try to keep the Yuan stable however this would require them to use up their foreign exchange reserves. In either of the scenario, the activities of china might create a negative impact resulting in unfavourable consequences for Singapore. Effect of interest rate on local stocks: According to Malkiel (2015) stocks and other class of assets such as bonds, cash and real estate are in constant push for investors capital. When the rate of interest is higher investors should not pay up for stocks in the form of alternative that can deliver a good return. On the other hand, when the rate of interest is low, it makes sense to bid stocks since the alternative gain are not capable of yielding a decent amount of return. The theory signifies that the rising stock level is not regarded as good for stock prices. The central bank or the monetary authority of Singapore does not determine interest rate in Singapore. Instead of this, they are determined by the market and are strongly tethered to what is happening in United States. As it is evident that the rates in US are currently at all time lows and the Federal bank together with the Central Bank of US is looking forward to increase the interest rates higher in the near future (Kashyap 2014). Over the last, 14 times the Federal Reserve have increased the rate of interest whereas stocks usually increased in 12 separate occasion. Relationships in the world of finance are not usually as clear as it is anticipated. Being a small open economy with open capital markets, Singapore is largely exposed to the developments in the Global economy (Summers 2014). The monetary policy particularly in the large industrial economies has also opened to the capital markets because the impulse from those policies helps in shaping the global capital flows. The influence has been especially marked with the policy of rates at Zero in several countries, with the resulting capital flows eventually discovers homes in places like Singapore. Conclusion: The central bank should strike a balance between the commitment in order to prevent the unwanted increase in long-term rates and flexibility to act as the new information concerning the economy and its structure turns available. The economist has cited that they cannot expect to be more specificity and the commitment concerning the future rates than is healthy to provide. 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